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Today's news: according to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on December 9, the national consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.5% year-on-year in November. This is the first negative year-on-year growth since October 2009
Dong Lijuan, Senior Statistician of the city Department of the National Bureau of statistics, said that in November, with the continuous promotion of & ldquo; Six stabilities & rdquo& ldquo; Six guarantees & rdquo; Work, pork and other important livelihood commodity prices continued to fall. Affected by the high base of comparison in the same period last year, the CPI in November decreased by 0.5% year-on-year. Among them, food prices changed from rising to falling last month, affecting the decline of CPI by about 0.44 percentage points, which is the main reason for driving CPI from rising to falling
Analysts believe that as the economy gradually enters the trend track, the CPI trend will probably stabilize after the decline next year, and maintain a moderate upward trend as a whole
Negative CPI growth caused by two factors
Data show that from a month on month perspective, CPI fell by 0.6% in November; From a year-on-year perspective, CPI decreased by 0.5%
According to Wen bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, two factors contributed to the negative year-on-year growth of CPI in November. First, it is related to the cardinality effect. Since the second half of last year, the increase of CPI has continued to rise driven by the rise of food prices, and did not begin to fall until the Spring Festival in January this year. Second, the year-on-year growth rate of food prices changed from up to down, which became the main reason for the higher than expected decline of CPI
For the price trend in the next stage, Zhu Jianfang, chief economist of CITIC Securities, believes that the CPI increase is still facing downward pressure in the short term, and the real relief may be in the second quarter of next year
Zheng Houcheng, director of Yingda Securities Research Institute, expects that the year-on-year increase rate of CPI next year will show a U-shaped trend
In November, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, which has been the same for five consecutive months. Zhu Jianfang said that negative CPI growth does not mean weak domestic fundamentals, and the short * currency policy is not expected to be adjusted
Demand improvement supports PPI
Data show that in November, industrial production recovered steadily, market demand continued to pick up, and industrial product prices continued to rise. On a month on month basis, the national producer price index (PPI) rose 0.5% in November, the largest month on month increase in the year. From a year-on-year perspective, PPI decreased by 1.5%, 0.6 percentage points lower than that of the previous month
“ The improvement of PPI in November was in line with market expectations, mainly driven by the narrowing of the decline in the price of means of production& rdquo; Wen Bin said that on the one hand, with the continuous recovery of the domestic economy, the continuous improvement of industrial production, the improvement of corporate profits, the enhancement of confidence and the improvement of demand support PPI. On the other hand, international oil prices bottomed out at the end of October and rebounded. In November, Brent * spot price per barrel increased by 28.4% year-on-year. The rise of relevant * commodity prices has driven the overall recovery of industrial production prices
Zhu Jianfang predicted that PPI will still rise steadily in December and become positive in the first quarter of next year. He said that since December, the international oil price has rebounded and the coal price has risen. It is expected that the domestic industrial demand in December is not weak. Therefore, the decline of PPI is expected to be further narrowed and the PPI will become positive in the first quarter of next year. The domestic investment of manufacturing enterprises is expected to recover to a certain extent next year
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